The 10,000 Steps Myth

Published in

The Jedi PhD

9 min readMay 12, 2023

And why should you dump it?

When I started researching the quantified self, one of the aspects that I was curious about was the constant push towards 10,000 steps. For example, the American Heart Association and Heart UK (a charity in the UK) have consistently pushed consumers to complete 10,000 steps. Recently in India, Aditya Birla Insurance has created a new Insurance plan in which they reduce the insurance premium if you walk 10,000 steps every day (check the advert below). Vitality Insurance already formalises this idea in the UK (they even provide an Apple Watch). At the same time, I watched a viral video in which a doctor ( Dr Manan Vora) talked about a study and claimed that walking 10,000 steps will help reduce the risk of dementia, 13 types of cancer, and cardiovascular diseases (more on those papers later).

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The biggest issue I have with this claim is the 10,000 steps. Walking is one of the best forms of exercise. But there is much more to walking than just the number of steps. So is the 10,000-step mark the right measure for walking?

Origin of 10,000 Steps

The 10,000 steps emerged from a marketing campaign by a Japanese company, Yamasa Corporation, that introduced a wearable pedometer during the 1964 Tokyo Olympics. It was called Manpo-Kei, which literally translates to 10,000 — step meter. However, there was no evidence for their claim (Cox, 2018).

I tried backtracking this claim and ended up in a paper without a reference. Moreover, many brands use 10,000 steps to sell their fitness trackers and have influenced retroactive academic studies. For example, Wattanapisit and Thanamee (2017) conducted a systematic literature review of retroactive studies to determine the efficacy of 10,000 steps. They found that most studies try to prove that just walking 10,000 steps is good enough to be considered an active lifestyle. But overall, based on the studies, they concluded that 10,000 steps with moderate intensity would be the best way to get visible results. They suggested that the intensity of walking should be 100 steps/min.

A recent study published in JAMA Neurology (Del Pozo Cruz et al., 2022) found that 9800 steps are an optimum number of steps to reduce the risk of dementia. The study is an oft-quoted research paper in recent times on social media and mainstream media due to the number of samples used. The study used data from the UK Biobank of around 78,340 respondents who wore a fitness band for at least three days. They specifically mention that it is essential to have purposeful steps and 30-min cadence intensity to achieve better results. Purposeful steps mean that you must take more than 40 steps/min. Cadence is the walking rate in steps per minute, and usually, the speed of your walk is calculated based on the cadence.

Speed = cadence x stride length.

The same researchers published another paper, JAMA Internal Medicine (Del Pozo Cruz et al., 2022), and they repeated the importance of the intensity of walking. However, a systematic literature review of 24 studies by Ciria et al. (2023) concluded that the studies overstate the benefits of walking. Majority of the studies overemphasise on the number of steps instead of the intensity of walking.

(The JAMA studies by Del Pozo Cruz et.al., are the studies referred by Dr Manan Vora in his viral Instagram reel)

So, the point is 10,000 steps do not matter. When you walk, increase the average number of steps per minute. Walking 4000–5000 steps with moderate to high intensity is better than walking 10,000 steps with lower intensity.

Heart rate and why is it significant?

Most of us walk to reduce weight and lose the extra flab we have gained over the years. As I iterated, walking is the best exercise you can do. However, it takes time, consistency, and intensity to reduce weight. The research journals I referred to in the previous section have talked about a minimum of 40+ steps a minute. So when you do high-intensity walking, your heart rate will automatically increase.

Heart rate is one of the measures used to assess the fitness of a human being. According to scientific studies, the normal resting heart rate should be 60–100 beats per minute. So, if you use walking in your weight loss journey, you should first calculate your maximum heart rate. There are a few popular ways to calculate the maximum heart rate.

The Simple Age Rule: This is the most common method most people use because of its simplicity.

Formula: MHR = 220 — Age

2. The Tanaka Rule : Tanaka et al. (2001) developed another measure based on a meta-analytical study. Their formula is as follows.

Formula: MHR = 208 — (0.7 x age)

Both of these formulae do not take gender into account.

3. The Abdelmoneim and Gulati Rule: Abdelmoneim et al. (2015) tried to solve the gender problem in the heart rate calculation and devised the following formula specifically for women. They arrived at the formula through a study that included 11,029 women with a mean age of 52(+or -)12 years.

Formula: MHR = 201 — (0.67 x age)

So, if your age is 40, these are the maximum heart rates based on different formulas.

Simple Age Rule = 220–40 = 180
Tanaka Rule = 208 — (0.7 x 40) = 180
Abdelmoneim and Gulati Rule = 201 — (0.67 x 40) = 174 (rounded)

However, as you can see, there is not much difference in the heart rates, but we need to calculate it to the optimum heart rate zone for fitness and weight loss. Various scientific organisations like the American College of Sports Medicine, CDC, and British Heart Foundation recommend that your target heart rate is between 64% and 76% for moderate-intensity physical activity and between 77% and 93% for vigorous-intensity physical activity.

If you access any fitness blogs/websites/activity tracking apps, you will see a picture like the one below. I have used an image from Whoop, an health coach app. It gives a broad-based view of how much your heart rate should be based on your goals. So, if you are walking, you will usually be around Zones Two and Three, which will help you lose weight. Most heart rate trackers have these heart rate zones on their trackers or mobile apps.

Why 10,000 Steps?

10,000 steps are a good marketing ploy, and it helps sell the products/apps. It has also enabled government organisations to promote mass fitness programmes and charity-based walking campaigns. These programmes are not personalised but aim to make people move. For example, the massive project 10000 Steps in Australia has influenced many companies, organisations, and universities to adopt the programme. According to the website, 603934 members are recording the steps (when this blog was written).

If you see any of these mass programmes, they do not claim that the programnme is for weight loss, and there will be no discussion on the intensity of the walk. But numbers give humans a sense of certainty. Humans use numbers through a system-dependent linking pattern (i.e., numbers are always used concerning an object, or the meaning depends on the position of the number concerning the object). So the meaning of steps depends on the context in which it is used. Although 10,000 steps is not advertised for weight loss, as it is used in these mass programmes, we identify it as a way to lose weight. But if you think about it, we never counted steps before the advent of pedometer. Without using a fitness tracker or a mobile phone, we would measure walking based on the number of minutes or in km or Miles (provided we know the distance).

The introduction of these devices has helped us to express this distance differently. If you consider it carefully, we could measure something we could not in the past. It provides a sense of certainty and control. The marketing messages target that sense of control and power. The second aspect these advertisements target is the principle of least effort in human beings. Guillermo Ferrero in 1894 (Gibson, 1900) theorised that humans, animals and even machines would naturally choose a path that takes the least effort to achieve something.

10,000 steps with minimal intensity can be achieved by most of us with least effort. It might be difficult for people with stationary jobs, and 10,000 steps might be a good measure for them. But we humans choose to do 10,000 steps because we think it’s easy to complete that number in a day. It’s not about whether we can complete them, it’s about how these apps and the market make you believe that you can complete them. If you care about moving and achieving those minimal steps, then 10,000 steps makes a lot of sense. The mass programmes target those people. Achieving those numbers gives a comfort that we are doing enough and the market wants you to consume more food (because you have done enough). However, if your goals are about weight loss or other health-related exercises, in that case, you should consider how you are walking, where you are walking, and your speed.

Understand that jogging and running are entirely different beasts. In my PhD research, one of the respondents (an active sportsperson) pointed out that many running injuries happen because people do not know how to run or do not choose the right gear (yes, shoes matter).

What to do?

The calculations are generalised and cannot be the same for everyone. Check with your physician about your heart rate and the intensity that you can undertake. Exercise must make you healthy and not kill you (or injure you).
Invest in a good heart rate monitor if you can afford it. I understand it is a privilege, but please buy it if possible. You do not need an Apple Watch, but getting a good heart rate tracker will help you monitor the zones. Some trackers/apps tell you in what zone you are in and it helps a lot to manage the intensity of walking.
Many walking apps on the app store provide good walking programmes that you can use. The apps might differ based on the country you access them. One of the aspects that these apps help is pacing the walk, warming up and cooling down after the exercise (that is important). I use Verv in the UK but you can choose any app that you prefer (free or paid).

Don’t get stuck with numbers. Don’t expect validation from numbers. Numbers do not mean anything if you are not enjoying your walk. Walking is about enjoying nature, getting fresh air, listening to music/podcasts, and exercising your body and mind. Numbers are a mirage. Just because we can quantify, it need not mean something.

References

Abdelmoneim, S.S., Gulati, M., Mulvagh, S.L., Pack, Q., Scott, C.G., Barr, L. and Allison, T.G. (2015) Impact of utilizing a women-based formula for determining adequacy of the chronotropic response during exercise treadmill testing. J Womens Health (Larchmt), 24, 174–181. Available from https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25761214 [Accessed on 2023–05–07].

Cox, D. (2018) Watch your step: why the 10,000 daily goal is built on bad science The Guardian. Available from https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/sep/03/watch-your-step-why-the-10000-daily-goal-is-built-on-bad-science [Accessed on 25 Sep 2022]

Deborah Riebe, Jonathan K Ehrman, Gary Liguori, Meir Magal. Chapter 6 General Principles of Exercise Prescription. In: ACSM’s Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription. 10th Ed. Wolters Kluwer/Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Philadelphia, PA: 2018, 143–179.

Del Pozo Cruz, B., Ahmadi, M., Naismith, S.L. and Stamatakis, E. (2022) Association of Daily Step Count and Intensity With Incident Dementia in 78 430 Adults Living in the UK. JAMA Neurol, 79, 1059–1063. Available from https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36066874 [Accessed on 2023–05–05].

Del Pozo Cruz, B., Ahmadi, M.N., Lee, I.M. and Stamatakis, E. (2022) Prospective Associations of Daily Step Counts and Intensity With Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Incidence and Mortality and All-Cause Mortality. JAMA Intern Med, 182, 1139–1148. Available from https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36094529 [Accessed on 2023–03–31].

Gibson, W.B., 1900. The principle of least action as a psychological principle. Mind, pp.469–495.

Tanaka, H., Monahan, K.D. and Seals, D.R. (2001) Age-predicted maximal heart rate revisited. J Am Coll Cardiol, 37, 153–156. Available from https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11153730 [Accessed on 2023–05–06].

Wattanapisit, A. and Thanamee, S. (2017) Evidence behind 10,000 steps walking. Journal of Health Research, 31, 241–248. Available from [Accessed on 2023–03–31].